Predicting Mathematical Learning Difficulties Using Fundamental Calculative Ability Test (FCAT)

Background: Mathematical learning difficulty (MLD) during school years results from several factors, including dyscalculia. Traditional diagnostic tests for dyscalculia are time intensive and require skilled specialists. This prospective cohort study aimed to reveal that the less time intensive Fundamental Calculative Ability Test (FCAT), administered in first grade, can predict the outcome of mathematical school achievement, which was measured with the curriculum-based mathematical test for second grade (1.2 years after FCAT). Methods: A total of 362 Japanese first- and second-grade children participated. A new quick test measuring fundamental calculative abilities, the FCAT, ordinal, radix, addition, and subtraction, was conducted for the first graders (mean age: 7.1 years). Mathematical school achievement was measured during the tests [mathematics curriculum-based test in Tottori Prefecture (MCBT)] for first (MCBT-1, mean age: 7.3 years) and second graders (MCBT-2, mean age: 8.3 years). We analyzed the associations between FCAT and MCBT-1 and 2 using univariate regression analysis, and cutoff values for mathematical learning difficulty (MLD) at MCBT-2 using the rating operation curve and Youden index. MLD was set as a score of lower than 20% on the MCBT. Results: The FCAT score was significantly associated with the MCBT-1 (regression coefficient: 0.67, P < 0.001) and MCBT-2 scores (regression coefficient: 0.50, P < 0.001). A cutoff value of 47 points (deviation score: 47) at the FCAT score predicted MLD at MCBT-2 (sensitivity: 0.77, specificity: 0.73). For 62 participants with MLD at MCBT-1 score, FCAT scores below the cutoff value of 40 points (deviation score: 35) were at high risk of MLD at MCBT-2 (odds ratio: 6.2). Conclusion: The FCAT is easily conducted in a short time during regular schools and can predict mathematical school achievement. It can be used for the early diagnosis of children with mathematical problems.