Predictive Model for Adverse Events and Immune Response Based on the Production of Antibodies After the Second-Dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA Vaccine

Background: The BNT162b mRNA vaccine for coronavirus disease 2019, which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), mimics the immune response to natural infection. Few studies have predicted the adverse effects (AEs) after the second-dose vaccination. We present a predictive model for AEs and immune response after the second-dose of the BNT162b mRNA vaccine. Methods: To predict AEs, 282 healthcare workers (HCWs) were enrolled in this prospective observational study. The classification and regression tree (CART) model was established, and its predictive efficacy was assessed. To predict immune response, 282 HCWs were included in the analysis. Moreover, the factors affected by anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein RBD antibody (s-IgG) were evaluated using serum samples collected 2 months after the second-dose vaccination. The s-IgG level was assessed using Lumipulse G1200. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to evaluate variables associated with anti-s-IgG titer levels. Results: The most common AEs after the second-dose vaccination were pain (87.6%), redness (17.0%) at the injection site, fatigue (68.8%), headache (53.5%), and fever (37.5%). Based on the CART model, headache after the first-dose vaccination and age < 30 years were identified as the first and second discriminators for predicting the headache after the second-dose vaccination, respectively. In the multiple linear regression model, anti-s-IgG titer levels were associated with age, female sex, and AEs including headache and induration at the injection site after the second-dose vaccination. Conclusion: Headache after the first-dose vaccination can be a predictor of headache after the second-dose vaccination, and AEs are indicators of immune response.